In most years, a graph of annual local TV ad spending is about as predictable as an electrocardiogram of a reasonably healthy patient in a doctorโs office. Revenue spikes upwards on even-numbered years as a pulse of political advertising pumps into the system and declines in odd-numbered years between the regular cycles of midterm and presidential elections.
Not surprisingly, analysts and top station executives predict a similar pattern for 2026, which will see a burst of spending around the midterm elections, the Winter Olympics and the FIFA World Cup. BIA Advisory Services, for example, predicts the $14.51 billion in local TV over-the-air (OTA) ad revenue in 2025 will grow 25.5% to $18.18 billion next year.
Smoothing out the spikes of political advertising, S&P Global Market Intelligenceโs Kagan Research predicts a cumulative annual growth rate of 1.48% between 2025 and 2030 for TV station ad revenue.
Even so, most analysts readily admit that the prognosis for a healthy ad market over the next year or two is particularly uncertain. While the rollout of NextGen TV and industry-wide consolidation could boost revenue several years down the road, they are unlikely to have a major impact on the 2026 ad market, which could easily be derailed by a variety of economic issues.
โWho knows what will happen with tariffs?โ Rick Ducey, managing director of BIA Advisory Services, explained. โWho knows what will happen with inflation and interest rates? Who knows about employmentโฆand consumer confidence and AI spending, which has been a key driver of the economy?โ
โThe economy is really a big wildcard,โ added Brian Wieser, principal at Madison and Wall and a financial analyst of the global advertising, technology and marketing services sectors. โUnless you believe that everything economists have said in the last 100, 200 years is wrong, there are real…