Recent advances such as Open AI’s GPT-4 chatbot have awakened the world to how sophisticated artificial intelligence has become and how rapidly the field is advancing. Could this powerful new technology help save the world? We asked five leading AI researchers to lay out their best-case scenarios.
‘More intelligence will lead to better everything.’
In 1999, I predicted that computers would pass the Turing test [and be indistinguishable from human beings] by 2029. Stanford university found that alarming, and organized an international conference – experts from all over the world. They mostly agreed that it would happen, but not in 30 years – in 100 years. This poll has been taken every year since 1999. My guess has remained 2029, and the consensus view of AI experts is now also 2029.
Everything’s going to improve. We can cure cancer, heart disease, and so on, using simulated biology – and extend our lives. The average life expectancy was 30 in 1800 and 48 in 1900; it’s now pushing 80. I predict that we’ll reach “longevity escape velocity” by 2029.
As you go forward a year, you’re using up a year of your longevity, but you’re actually getting back about three or four months from scientific progress. So, you haven’t lost a year but eight or nine months. By 2029, you’ll get back that entire year of scientific progress. As we go past 2029, you’ll get back more than a year.
Most movies about AI have an “us versus them” mentality, but that’s not the case. This is not an alien invasion of intelligent machines; it’s the result of our efforts to make our infrastructure and way of life more intelligent. It’s part of human endeavor. We merge with our machines. Ultimately, they will extend who we are. Our mobile phone,…