DOJ probes NFL over streaming deals as antitrust exemption draws scrutiny
The Justice Department is probing the NFL's exclusive streaming deals amidst fan frustration over fragmented and paid access. FCC Chairman Brendan Carr questions if the league should retain its special antitrust exemption, initially established by the 1961 Sports Broadcasting Act. Fox News contributor Jonathan Turley suggests Congress examine the NFL's monopoly structure, highlighting their $25 billion annual revenue and rising fan costs.
The prevailing narrative around the NFL's media rights is that the league will pressure its television partners to pay significantly higher fees before the 2029-30 opt-out period begins (2030-31 for ESPN), or risk losing their packages to streaming platforms.
However, we are not convinced the NFL has as much leverage as it has led industry insiders and the public to believe. And, no, it's not because of scrutiny from the U.S. Justice Department.
Netflix and NFL signage advertises the NFL's two Christmas Day marquee games streaming live on Netflix in New Orleans, Louisiana, on Dec. 1, 2024. (Aaron M. Sprecher/Getty Images)
To be sure, the current broadcast partners — ESPN/ABC, Fox, CBS and NBC — cannot compete financially with the tech companies circling the league. Alphabet, which owns Google and YouTube, carries a market cap of roughly $4.78 trillion. Amazon sits at $2.84 trillion. In a pure bidding war, traditional networks would almost certainly lose. But that scenario assumes the streamers actually want the same packages the networks currently hold.
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So far, the evidence suggests otherwise.
Netflix and YouTube have both expressed interest in adding NFL inventory, but consider the types of games they have pursued.
Netflix expanded its NFL package from two games to five this season, adding a Week 1 international game, a Thanksgiving Eve matchup and a Week 18 game alongside its Christmas Day doubleheader. That…